Kejriwal has emerged as the most popular choice for chief minister, with 44 per cent votes, followed by the BJP’s Kiran Bedi with 35.
NEW DELHI: The latest poll survey, released on Tuesday by the India Today Group-Cicero, predicts that it won’t be a hung assembly in the Capital this time round.
The city votes on February 7, and the results will be declared on February 10.
The battle for Delhi is likely to end favourably for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), with the opinion poll showing that it is poised to comfortably form the government by bagging 38-46 seats.
The BJP looks like a distant second, with a mere 19-25 seats in its kitty.
The India Today Group-Cicero poll survey also shows that AAP leader Arvind “Kejri-wall” has successfully managed to put embankments on the Modi wave, which has swept elections in three states and made substantial gains in J&K since last year’s Lok Sabha elections.
Kejriwal has emerged as the most popular choice for chief minister, with 44 per cent votes, followed by the BJP’s Kiran Bedi with 35.
The popularity gap between Kejriwal and Bedi has widened since the last survey, when only three percentage points separated the friends-turned-rivals.
In the January survey, 41 per cent of respondents had preferred Kejriwal. Ajay Maken of the Congress continues to retain the third spot, securing only 12 per cent of the votes.
The survey is based on the findings of a sample size of 12,704. But the real twist in the tale, as per the opinion poll projection, is in the seat share.
The BJP, which won 31 seats in the 2013 election, is projected to fall shorter of the halfway mark of 35. The AAP, which got 28 seats in the previous elections, appears to be heading for a clear majority with 38-46 seats.
The Congress, which could hold only eight seats in 2013, is expected to perform even worse this time, with its share falling to three to seven seats.
Coming just hours before Delhi lines up in front of the polling booths, the latest opinion poll foresees that AAP will get a vote share of 43.5 per cent, a jump of 7.5 per cent since January 2015.
In both December 2014 and January 2015, the party’s vote share stood at 36 per cent. In 2013, the BJP’s vote share was 34 per cent, followed by AAP’s 29.5 per cent and the Congress’s 24.5 per cent.
It is a late surge for AAP, with a positive swing of 14 per cent over the 29.5 per cent it received in 2013, when it won 28 seats. Nearly 38 per cent of the respondents said that the recent visit by US president Barack Obama had no impact on their decision to vote for a particular party. Only 17 per cent claimed to have changed their decision after Obama’s visit as the chief guest at this year’s Republic parade.
However, there is no change in the voters’ opinion over AAP’s 49-day rule, with 36 per cent saying that the party had performed as per their expectations. The opinion was the same last month too.
In the last lap, AAP appears to be deriving most of its strength from young voters. Nearly 51 per cent of voters up to 25 years prefer the party, while 34 per cent in the same age group are rallying behind the BJP.
AAP holds the maximum sway over women voters too, with 45 per cent backing it as compared to the BJP’s 35.
The major support for AAP comes from JJ clusters, where 53 per cent voters favour it, followed by 45 per cent respondents in the middle class localities.
Forty-seven per cent of the respondents said that AAP should be given the chance to form the Delhi government, while 38 per cent preferred the BJP.
The choice was narrower in January 2015, when 42 per cent rooted for AAP and 41 per cent for the BJP.
In terms of issues that are a concern for the voters, most of the respondents said that they were affected by factors other than corruption, electricity bills, women’s safety, water scarcity and inflation.
Only 15 per cent of the respondents said women’s safety was an issue. Corruption was listed as an issue by only 17 per cent of those interviewed.
The latest findings are likely to restore the morale of the beleaguered AAP, which has just been jolted by allegations of dubious fundings in midnight hawala transactions.
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